Source Themes

Melting Opportunities: Technological Change and Labor Market Perspectives

Icemen were common in U.S. cities until refrigerators began to enter homes en masse. I study the long-run consequences of this technology shock for incumbent ice retailers and their descendants. I find that the general spread of electric …

Do Natural Disasters Affect Household Saving? Evidence From the August 2002 Flood in Germany

Recently, there is a growing interest in understanding how individuals adapt to changing climate conditions and climate-induced extreme weather events, An underexplored question is whether and how climate-related natural hazards affect household …

Right and yet wrong: a politico-economic perspective on Germany’s early COVID-19 policy

Applying a spatio-temporal endemic–epidemic forecasting model, we evaluate different perspectives on the adequacy of COVID-19 containment policies. Using Germany’s early containment policy as an example, we show that containment policies judged as …

The Need for a Tweet - Foreigner Criminality in Police Press Releases and Hate Speech on Social Media

Draft coming soon - This study investigates the role of police communication in shaping public discourse on social media in the context of immigration, crime, and political populism. We compile a unique dataset of more than 1.5 million press releases …

From Stocks to Flows - Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus

Slow onset climate change has the potential to cause significant migration flows. Scientists have recently made considerable efforts to quantify these flows based on empirical methods. However, the literature on international migration has failed to …

Bayesian Compression for Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressions: A Forecast Study for Germany

Up until now, the concept of compression in single-or multivariate regressions has been limited to the common-frequency case. Having an application of macroeconomic forecasting in mind, one inevitably has to deal with variables sampled at various …